2022 - Building Our Future: Recovery Initiatives

04. Building our Future

Earthquake Safety

Liquefaction

HAZUS and Liquefaction map

Because the risk of a major earthquake is imminent and the potential damage significant, San Francisco is constantly seeking new ways to protect our residents, workers, and buildings. The Earthquake Safety Implementation Program (ESIP) is a comprehensive 30-year, 50-task plan that grew out of the Community Action Plan for Seismic Safety (CAPSS) to address the City’s most pressing private building seismic risks in partnership with our communities. Priority ESIP tasks currently underway include the Soft Story Retrofit Program, Tall Building Safety Strategy, and the Private School Earthquake Safety Program.

In addition to improving the safety of private buildings, the Office of Resilience and Capital Planning is making efforts to address publicly owned infrastructure that is vulnerable to failure in an earthquake. The primary tools for such analysis include the HAZUS Earthquake Loss Estimation Study and Seismic Hazard Ratings. The HAZUS Earthquake Loss Estimation Study is a standardized analysis developed by FEMA to estimate the physical and economic impacts for specific earthquake scenarios. San Francisco is the first known municipality to have applied the HAZUS methodology at the individual building level, run first in 2013 and updated in 2017. The results from the most recent HAZUS analysis are shown in Table 4.1 and shown in the accompanying HAZUS map.

Table 4.1

2017 SF HAZUS Results Hayward  San Andreas  San Andreas San Andreas 
(Dollars in Millions) M6.9 M6.5 M7.2 M7.9
Structural Damage 107.2   133.4   212.3   353.1 
Non-Structural Damage 398.3   545.4   859.7   1,489.3 
Subtotal, Building Damage 505.5   678.8   1,072.0   1,842.4 
         
Content Damage 130.1   426.7   523.6   714.3 
Operational Losses (Rent, Relocation, and Lost Income) 154.8   191.9   314.7   527.2 
Total Economic Impact (239 Buildings) 790.4   1,297.3   1,910.3   3,083.8 

 

Seismic Hazard Ratings (SHRs) were first developed in San Francisco in 1992 and are used to assess risk and prioritize seismic-strengthening capital improvements for over 200 public buildings. Buildings are rated on a scale from one (best) to four (worst). At present the City has addressed nearly all of the buildings previously identified as SHR4, with the exceptions of 101 Grove Street and 170 Otis, and many of those buildings rated SHR3. Updating the ratings is important for the future prioritization of seismically vulnerable structures, and some additional vulnerabilities have been identified this way. City facilities including, police and fire stations, and public health clinics have all been found in need of seismic safety work. That information has been incorporated into the prioritized projects of this Plan.

One of these priority projects includes the historic Kezar Pavilion, situated in the southeastern corner of Golden Gate Park. Kezar Pavilion needs a seismic upgrade to ensure safety for staff and public use in addition to comprehensive systems upgrades and historic rehabilitation. With a seating capacity of more than 5,000, this facility could be used for functions such as shelter, mass care and mutual aid after a major disaster.

Another essential disaster preparedness project is San Francisco’s Emergency Firefighting Water System (EFWS), which is vital for protecting against loss of life and property from fire in the event of a major earthquake. The San Francisco Public Utilities Commission assumed responsibility of the EFWS in 2011 and is steadily moving forward with plans to improve and expand its reach. For more information, please see the Infrastructure and Streets chapter and the Public Safety chapter.

The Building Occupancy Resumption Program (BORP) prioritizes critical facilities and reduces inspection times for reoccupation following a major earthquake. Building owners may apply to the BORP through the Department of Building Inspection to expedite a private inspection for reoccupation to within eight daylight hours of an earthquake through a contract with a qualified engineer, a process that can otherwise take days or weeks in the wake of a citywide emergency. This program is the first of its kind in California for private and public buildings and will enable San Francisco to restore services with minimal delay. Many of San Francisco’s critical public buildings and privately-owned buildings are part of the BORP program. Recent additions include the Moscone Convention Center and the California Academy of Sciences.  San Francisco is hoping to expand participation in the program in the coming years.

A rising priority for both public and private buildings is addressing vulnerable concrete buildings. There are approximately 3,700 publicly and privately owned older concrete buildings built before modern building codes in the city. Some of these buildings have the potential to fail and collapse in an earthquake. The next step for San Francisco is to leverage best engineering practices to develop a screening and evaluation program to identify the most vulnerable buildings and develop a seismic retrofit program.

 

 

 

New Building Our Future: Recovery Initiatives

Recovery Initiatives
Caltrans Eastern Span Bay Bridge Replacement
Caltrans Eastern Span Bay Bridge Replacement

The Lifelines Council of San Francisco is an initiative to improve regional collaboration and understand dependencies to enhance planning, restoration, and reconstruction in relation to a major disaster. In 2014, the Council published an Interdependency Study, which identified a series of actions to improve utility reliability and post-disaster function in San Francisco. Building on that study, the Lifelines Restoration Performance Project, to be completed in 2019, will identify projects, policies, and actions needed to close the gap between current and target restoration timelines following a major earthquake.

The Building Occupancy Resumption Program (BORP) prioritizes critical facilities and reduces inspection times for reoccupation following a major earthquake. Building owners may apply to the BORP through the Department of Building Inspections to expedite the inspection for reoccupation to within eight daylight hours of an event, a process that can otherwise take days or weeks in the wake of a citywide emergency. This program is the first of its kind in California for private and public buildings and will enable San Francisco to restore services with minimal delay.

A local disaster recovery framework is created before a disaster to guide both pre- and post-event recovery activities. It typically outlines the organizational structure, administration, and coordination steps following a disaster event. The Office of Resilience and Capital Planning has reviewed best practices from other communities and will work with a wide range of departments and stakeholders to develop a framework for San Francisco.

   

 

 

 

Building Our Future: Emergency Response

Emergency Response
911 Call Center
911 Call Center

While the risks posed by earthquakes and sea level rise are at the forefront of our collective resilience planning, San Francisco also prepares for a wide range of disaster types that could impact our capital infrastructure. 

The Department of Emergency Management maintains a number of plans to ensure that San Francisco is ready to respond to a variety of threats and hazards. These plans are consistent with the California Standardized Emergency Management System (SEMS) and the federal National Incident Management System (NIMS). The most wide-reaching of these are the 2014 HMP, referenced above, the All-Hazards Strategic Plan published in 2008, and the Emergency Response Plan published in 2009 and last updated in December 2010. 

The All-Hazards Strategic Plan assists Citywide leadership in ensuring accountability and allocating limited resources regarding emergency response. Developed by emergency management and homeland security stakeholders, it describes goals for developing and maintaining a Citywide risk-based emergency management and homeland security program; enhancing the City’s emergency management and homeland security training and exercise program; and ensuring sufficient voice and data communications capabilities are in place. Implementation of activities that support those and the other goals is coordinated through the City’s Department of Emergency Management. 

The Department of Emergency Management also administers the Emergency Response Plan, an all-hazards response and restoration plan that describes the coordination, roles, and responsibilities of responding agencies. It lays out how the City works with state and federal partners during an emergency. This document includes specific operational annexes, ranging from transportation to mass care to hazardous materials response. 

In 2017 San Francisco will initiate a three-year process to receive certification from the Emergency Management Accreditation Program (EMAP). EMAP is a voluntary, non-governmental process of self-assessment, documentation, and independent review. The program evaluates compliance with requirements in planning, resource management, training, communications and more. This certification process will provide an opportunity to assess our jurisdiction-wide Emergency Management Program against established national standards. It will also demonstrate San Francisco’s commitment to safe and resilient communities. 

2022 - Building Our Future: Affordability

04. Building our Future

Affordability

To become a truly resilient city, San Francisco must tackle the challenges of unaffordability for residents today and proactively build for the future. Affordable housing is critical to the City’s economic and social health. Without housing that is affordable to a range of incomes, San Francisco risk not only of losing vital components of its unique and diverse culture, but also incurring negative economic impacts as essential workers and families cannot afford to remain in the City. Moving forward, San Francisco will continue to prioritize the production and preservation of affordable homes. This commitment includes investments in affordable housing at low and moderate incomes.

With funding from the 2019 Affordable Housing Bond, the City is investing in creating new affordable homes, especially for our growing senior population, accelerating the rebuilding of distressed public housing sites for some of the City’s most vulnerable residents and preserving affordability in existing housing at risk of market-rate conversion or loss due to physical disrepair. Additional investment is planned for the 2024 Affordable Housing Bond.

For more information on affordable housing, please see the Affordable Housing chapter.

New Building Our Future: Climate Resilience Planning Efforts

Climate Resilience Planning Efforts
Vulnerability Zone Map
Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Zone Map

As we consider the next generation of programs and projects that will build strong, adaptive, and sustainable communities in San Francisco, two strategic documents will serve as guides: the Hazards and Climate Resilience Plan and the Climate Action Strategy.

To be completed in 2019, the Hazards and Climate Resilience Plan is San Francisco’s resilience plan to assess its vulnerability to existing hazards, such as earthquakes, as well as hazards increasing due to climate change, such as flooding, drought, and extreme heat. The plan will include hazard mitigation and climate adaptation goals and actions to improve San Francisco’s buildings, infrastructure, and communities and will drive future resilience policy and investment in the City.

The updated 2020 Climate Action Strategy will define a pathway to deliver net zero emissions by 2050 and articulate the wider social, environmental, and economic benefits thereof. Since the completion of the City’s 2013 Climate Action Strategy, there have been significant achievements, such as the launch of CleanPowerSF, the passing of the Better Roofs Ordinance, a transition to 100% renewable diesel in the City fleet, the Solar + Energy Storage feasibility analysis, and advancements in building energy efficiency. At the same time, significant population and economic growth compounded by changes in the transportation sector have quickly created new challenges in reducing emissions.

In addition to the broader Hazards and Climate Resilience Plan, San Francisco is working to understand the city’s vulnerability to the threat of sea level rise specifically. The Sea Level Rise exposure analysis completed in 2017 left no question that San Francisco’s lower-lying shoreline areas are exposed to flood waters in relatively near-term water-level scenarios. The Sea Level Rise Vulnerability and Consequences Assessment, to be completed in 2019, will provide information to decision-makers on the level of vulnerability of public assets to prioritize adaptation strategies.

The City has already adopted technical guidance for incorporating sea level rise into capital planning. Approved by the Capital Planning Committee in 2014 and currently undergoing an update, this guidance establishes a consistent review, planning, and implementation process for projects in the Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Zone. Departments are expected to identify and map project sites to check whether they fall within the Vulnerability Zone, fill out a checklist for all projects over $5 million funded within the next 10 years, and submit for review by the Chair of the Capital Planning Committee and the City Engineer.

Preliminary planning in areas known to be vulnerable to sea level rise is beginning. In May 2018, the Resilient by Design Bay Area Challenge launched design concepts for nine sites including the Islais Creek area in San Francisco. The design developed by the BIG+Sherwood team includes a restored creek with public spaces and recreational amenities, as well as industrial zones clustered in a jobs and logistics hub. Building on this work, in 2019 the Planning Department and Municipal Transportation Agency will collaborate to develop a Southeast Mobility Adaptation Strategy, funded by a CalTrans grant. This strategy will build adaptation scenarios to lay the groundwork for a resilient, safe, and reliable multimodal transportation system for projected population and job growth.

Planning for sea level rise is also underway on the west side of the city. The 2012 Ocean Beach Master Plan (OBMP), led by SPUR, involved federal, state, and local agencies in the development of a sustainable and resilient long-term vision for Ocean Beach. The 3.5-mile stretch of Ocean Beach is home to rugged coast, a national park, popular urban open space, and the site of some major infrastructure assets. The OBMP presents recommendations for the management and protection of Ocean Beach in the context of climate-induced sea level rise and severe erosion. It includes six Key Moves over a horizon of several decades. Current efforts include the removal of the Great Highway between Sloat and Skyline Boulevard under Key Move 1 and the introduction of a coastal protection, restoration, and access system under Key Move 2.

PUC Stormwater Flood Map

Sea level rise is not the only driver of our flood risks. Storm water also poses a threat, particularly during extreme precipitation events as runoff follows historic waterways and can result in flooding and sometimes property damage. As this type of flooding is not captured by our sea level rise maps or the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s floodplain maps, the SFPUC has developed a 100-Year Storm Flood Risk Map that shows areas of San Francisco where significant flooding from storm runoff is highly likely to occur during a 100-year storm. The purpose of the map is to inform existing and future property owners about flood risk on their properties and promote resilience.

Building Our Future: Sea Level Rise

Sea Level Rise
Vulnerability Zone Map
Vulnerability Zone Map - The area between the blue line and the shore shows potential inundation that could result from extreme seal level rise in the year 2100 plus a 100-year storm.

Sea level rise may be a slow-moving threat, but San Francisco recognizes that it demands action now. Climate change is accelerating the rate at which oceans are rising, and our lower-lying shoreline areas are increasingly exposed to flood waters. San Francisco is committed to planning for and adapting to the anticipated effects of climate change. 

By 2100, the National Research Council projects most likely sea level rise of 36 inches. In the event that land ice melting accelerates beyond current conditions, estimates through 2100 project as much as 66 inches of sea level rise. A combination of storm surge and king tides adds 40 inches to that upper estimate, for a potential rise of up to 108 inches in water levels by 2100. For long-lasting planning, it is this most severe scenario that is depicted in the Vulnerability Zone map. 

Proactive adaptation planning will allow San Francisco to minimize risks and meet the challenges posed by rising seas. To that end, San Francisco has convened an interagency committee (“SLR Coordinating Committee”) of 13 City departments to develop a Sea Level Rise Action Plan (“SLR Action Plan”). The SLR Action Plan highlights the risk to both public and private assets, as well as the complex regulatory environment that governs coastal planning and development activities. It identifies actions that San Francisco can take now and in the near future to meet the challenge of rising seas. Implementation of the SLR Action Plan will ultimately culminate in a Citywide Adaptation Plan, which will guide the allocation of resources towards policies and projects that will improve San Francisco’s resilience as sea levels change.

The visionary goals of the SLR Action Plan speaks to San Francisco’s commitment to equitable resilience planning. The City is mindful of the disproportionate impact disaster can have on our most vulnerable communities. When finalized, the Citywide Adaptation Plan will lay the groundwork for an adaptable city that recognizes and protects social as well as physical and economic value. It will help communities to participate in comprehensive planned response to sea level rise so that they are empowered to support efforts over the long term. Dependable and actionable information, transparency, and a common understanding of the shared responsibilities between public, private, and community interests will all be important for effective response.

The Recently Published Sea Level Rise Action Plan
The Recently Published Sea Level Rise Action Plan

As the Citywide Adaptation Plan is developed, the City has already adopted technical guidance for incorporating sea level rise planning into its capital planning. Approved by the Capital Planning Committee in 2014, this guidance establishes a consistent review, planning, and implementation process for projects in the Vulnerability Zone. Departments are expected to identify and map project sites to check whether they fall within the Vulnerability Zone, fill out a checklist for all projects over $5 million funded within the next 10 years, and submit for review by the Capital Planning Committee and the City Engineer. Prior to their inclusion in either a budget cycle or the Capital Plan, each project’s strategies for addressing sensitive and adaptive capacity are reviewed. Major waterfront projects incorporating innovative adaptive management include Hunters Point Shipyard, Candlestick Point, Crane Cove Park, and Mission Rock, as well as Treasure Island and the Ocean Beach Master Plan. 

Vulnerability assessments for the Port, SFO, and PUC are underway. SFO has already launched its Shoreline Protection Program to protect the airport from extreme tide and storm flooding risks in the near term, as well as long-term flooding risks from sea level rise. Assessments for SFMTA, parks and open space, and other City buildings and properties are still needed and expected to be completed as part of the Citywide Adaptation Plan development. Public property in the Vulnerability Zone has been catalogued across City agencies. 

Recognizing that San Francisco cannot fully address the threats posed by climate change and sea level rise in a vacuum, the City has engaged in numerous collaborative preparation and adaptability efforts. 

San Francisco is participating in the Bay Area Resilient by Design Challenge. Expected to launch in 2017, the challenge will unite interdisciplinary design teams to work in collaboration with communities to identify solutions to vulnerable locations on the bayside waterfront. Architects, designers, ecologists, engineers, and community leaders will create a blueprint for preparation to serve as a model for cities around the world. 

Additional regional efforts include the Coastal Hazards Adaptation Resilience Group, Adapting to Rising Tides, the Rockefeller 100 Resilient Cities Challenge, the Bay Area Ecosystems Climate Change Consortium, the Bay Area Regional Collaborative, the Climate Readiness Institute, Plan Bay Area, and Our Coast Our Future

2022 - Building Our Future: Racial and Social Equity

04. Building our Future

Racial and Social Equity

Eliminating social and racial disparities is a key element of resilience. This commitment has been made even more clear in the Plan’s funding principles, principles, (please see Introduction Chapter). The Office of Racial Equity is assisting City departments with the development of Racial Equity Action Plans. These plans will integrate racial equity into the processes and policies of each department, including community engagement, that informs their capital priorities. In addition, this Plan recommends investments to address some of San Francisco’s most severe racial disparities that have been made worse by the COVID-19 crisis, such as public health and mental health, homelessness, employment, and digital connectivity.

Public Health and Mental Health

San Francisco is working to meet persistent and emerging mental health and substance abuse challenges. The Department of Public Health (DPH) is the City’s largest provider of behavioral health services, helping approximately 30,000 individuals annually. The November 2020 Health and Recovery Bond provides a portion of the funding necessary to improve, acquire, and construct facilities that deliver services for people requiring mental health and substance use services. DPH also operates more than a dozen community-based primary care health centers that provide convenient access to health care services in neighborhoods across the city. The Health and Recovery Bond includes funding for improvements to community health centers that serve low-income and vulnerable communities.

Homelessness

San Francisco is working to address the shortage of shelter beds and permanent supportive housing available to homeless, at-risk, and extremely low-income households. Through the Department of Homelessness and Supportive Housing, San Francisco currently offers temporary shelter to approximately 3,400 people every night through shelters, Navigation Centers, stabilization beds and transitional housing. Since October 2018, the City has opened 566 additional beds and 499 are underway. Additional beds are needed to match the waitlist for individuals looking to access shelter. November 2020 Health and Recovery Bond proceeds will be used to stabilize, acquire, construct, expand and/or improve shelters and more investment is called for in this Plan, including a 2024 Affordable Housing Bond.

Permanent Supportive Housing is an important means of ensuring long-term health and stability for low-income San Franciscans and those exiting chronic homelessness. However, the City does not have a sufficient supply to meet the demand. While the State is making some resources available to acquire hotels and other buildings, such as through the Homekey Grant Program, the City will also make investments to purchase buildings with proceeds from the November 2020 Health and Recovery Bond.

Employment

COVID-19 job losses have had a disproportionate impact on low-income communities and people of color. Infrastructure investment is an important piece of local economic stimulus. The Certificates of Participation program has been re-tooled to recommend investing $125 million in recovery stimulus projects that generating an estimated 559 jobs. For more information, see the Sources chapter.

Digital Connectivity

Gaps in access to technology threaten to widen the economic divide, especially as more services and job opportunities are moving online. For the past three years, the Department of Technology (DT) has received funding to install broadband internet connectivity to public housing in collaboration with MonkeyBrains, a local internet service provider. During FY2020, internet service was extended to 2,132 units and serves approximately 8,258 residents. When the COVID-19 emergency started, DT’s focus shifted to support student distance learning and telehealth needs, and in four weeks extended internet connectivity to 525 students and five shelter sites with 545 beds total. DT continues to extend fiber to public housing and affordable housing locations and this plan calls for further investment.

New Building Our Future: Earthquake Safety

Earthquake Safety
1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake
1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake

Nearly all of San Francisco’s homes, businesses, and essential facilities and infrastructure are located within the very violent and violent shaking intensity hazard areas for a large magnitude earthquake on both the San Andreas and Hayward Faults. Because the risk of a major earthquake is imminent and the potential damage significant, San Francisco is constantly seeking new ways to protect our residents, workers, and buildings from seismic risks. This section first discusses earthquake safety programs for private buildings (the Earthquake Safety Implementation Program) and then programs for public buildings and infrastructure.

Earthquake Safety Implementation Program

The Earthquake Safety Implementation Program (ESIP) is a comprehensive plan of 50 tasks that grew out of the Community Action Plan for Seismic Safety (CAPSS) to address the City’s most pressing private building seismic risks in partnership with our communities. Priority ESIP tasks currently underway include the Soft Story Retrofit Program, Tall Building Safety Strategy, and the Private School Earthquake Safety Program.

The mandatory Soft Story Retrofit Program, started in 2013, applies to soft story apartment and condo buildings with five units or more. Nearly 5,000 buildings and over 110,000 residents are affected by this program. Without retrofitting, soft story buildings are vulnerable to collapse in earthquakes. Many studies by FEMA and others show that retrofitting makes a big difference (one in four chance of collapse without retrofitting vs. one in 30 with minimal retrofitting). Through this program, San Francisco is protecting the city’s residents and housing stock, which should help mitigate the crisis of post-disaster recovery housing. In addition, the program helps expand the city's housing stock by allowing owners to add an accessory dwelling unit when they retrofit.

In late 2018, San Francisco released the Tall Buildings Safety Strategy and related study to understand and improve the seismic resilience of our buildings 240 feet tall and greater. The study included 16 recommendations ranging from establishing recovery-based seismic design standards to developing Administrative Bulletins to clarifying roles and responsibilities for post-event safety inspection response.

San Francisco’s private schools are vital to our communities and play a role in educating more than 24,000 children. Since private schools are not required to meet the same level of seismic safety as public schools. San Francisco passed an ordinance requiring seismic safety evaluations by 2017. The City is in the process of reading them. This Private Schools Earthquake Evaluation Program is intended to begin a meaningful conversation about seismic safety in our private schools and mandatory evaluations that were due in late 2017 were the first step in the process. Currently the City is reviewing the evaluation reports. 

A rising priority for ESIP is the Nonductile Concrete Building Retrofit Program. San Francisco estimates that there are approximately 3,300 publicly and privately owned older concrete buildings built before modern building codes in the city. As a result, some of these buildings have the potential to fail and collapse in an earthquake. The next step for San Francisco is to leverage best engineering practices to develop a screening and evaluation program to identify the most vulnerable buildings and develop a seismic retrofit program.

City-Owned Buildings and Infrastructure

In addition to improving the safety of private buildings, the Office of Resilience and Capital Planning is making efforts to address publicly owned infrastructure that is vulnerable to failure in an earthquake. The primary tools for such analysis include the HAZUS Earthquake Loss Estimation Study, Seismic Hazard Ratings, and new tools to look at non-structural building components.

The HAZUS Earthquake Loss Estimation Study is a standardized analysis developed by FEMA that uses geographic information systems data along with local facility and economic impact data to estimate the physical and economic impacts for specific earthquake scenarios. San Francisco is the first known municipality to have applied the HAZUS methodology at the individual building level, run first in 2013 and recently updated for 2017. The results from the most recent HAZUS analysis are shown in Table 4.1 and shown in the accompanying HAZUS map.

Seismic Hazard Ratings (SHRs) were first developed in San Francisco in 1992 and are used to assess risk and prioritize seismic-strengthening capital improvements for over 200 public buildings. Buildings are rated on a scale from one (best) to four (worst). At present the City has addressed nearly all of the buildings previously identified as SHR4, with the exceptions of 101 Grove Street and Kezar Pavillion, and many of those rated SHR3. Updating the ratings is important for the future prioritization of seismically vulnerable structures, and some additional vulnerabilities have been identified this way. City facilities including 170 Otis, public safety stations, and public health clinics have all been found in need of seismic safety work. That information has been incorporated into the prioritized projects of this Capital Plan.

Table 4.1

2017 SF HAZUS Results

(Dollars in Millions) 

Hayward 

M6.9 

San Andreas 

M6.5 

San Andreas 

M7.2 

San Andreas 

M7.9 

Structural Damage 

107.2 

133.4 

212.3 

353.1 

Non-Structural Damage 

398.3 

545.4 

859.7 

1,489.3 

Subtotal, Building Damage 

505.5 

678.8 

1,072.0 

1,842.4 

Content Damage 

130.1 

426.7 

523.6 

714.3 

Operational Losses (Rent, Relocation, and Lost Income) 

154.8 

191.9 

314.7 

527.2 

Total Economic Impact 

790.4 

1,297.3 

1,910.3 

3,083.8 

HAZUS Map
HAZUS Map

 

Building Our Future: Earthquakes

Earthquakes
1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake
1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake

Nearly all of San Francisco’s people, residences, and essential facilities and infrastructure are located within the very violent and violent shaking intensity hazard areas for a large magnitude earthquake on both the San Andreas and Hayward Faults. Because the risk of a major earthquake is imminent and the potential damage significant, San Francisco is constantly seeking new ways to protect our homes, businesses, and people from seismic risks. 

A major component of this effort is the Earthquake Safety Implementation Program (ESIP), a comprehensive plan of 50 tasks that grew out of the Community Action Plan for Seismic Safety (CAPSS) to address the City’s most pressing seismic risks in partnership with our communities. Priority ESIP tasks currently underway include the implementation of the Façade Maintenance Ordinance passed in 2016, the Soft Story Retrofit Program, and the Private School Earthquake Safety Program.

The Office of Resilience and Capital Planning aims to understand how our infrastructure is likely to respond to earthquakes and how to shore up vulnerable assets before a major event occurs. The primary tools for such analysis include the HAZUS Earthquake Loss Estimation Study Seismic Hazard Ratings, and the Building Occupancy Resumption Program, as well as the work of the Lifelines Council and the Infrastructure Branch Working Group. 

The HAZUS Earthquake Loss Estimation Study is a standardized analysis developed by FEMA that uses geographic information systems data along with local facility and economic impact data to estimate the physical and economic impacts for specific earthquake scenarios. San Francisco is the first known municipality to have applied the HAZUS methodology at the individual building level, run first in 2013 and recently updated for 2017. The results from the most recent HAZUS analysis are shown in Table 4.1 and shown in the accompanying HAZUS map.

Table 4.1

HAZUS Results (239 Buildings) 

(Dollars in Millions) 

Hayward 

M6.9 

San Andreas 

M6.5 

San Andreas 

M7.2 

San Andreas 

M7.9 

Structural Damage 

107.2 

133.4 

212.3 

353.1 

Non-Structural Damage 

398.3 

545.4 

859.7 

1,489.3 

Subtotal, Building Damage 

505.5 

678.8 

1,072.0 

1,842.4 

Content Damage 

130.1 

426.7 

523.6 

714.3 

Operational Losses (Rent, Relocation, and Lost Income) 

154.8 

191.9 

314.7 

527.2 

Total Economic Impact 

790.4 

1,297.3 

1,910.3 

3,083.8 

HAZUS Map
HAZUS Map

Seismic Hazard Ratings (SHRs) were first developed in San Francisco in 1992 and are used to assess risk and prioritize seismic-strengthening capital improvements for over 200 public buildings. Buildings are rated on a scale from one (best) to four (worst). At present the City has addressed nearly all of the buildings identified as SHR4, with the exceptions of 101 Grove Street and Kezar Pavillion, and many of those rated SHR3. Updating the ratings is important for the future prioritization of seismically vulnerable structures. 

Results from the HAZUS analysis and SHRs contain important information about the relative seismic risks and potential impacts to City facilities. Prior to the next Capital Plan update, the Office of Resilience and Capital Planning will work with the Capital Planning Committee to develop policies that incorporate this information into project planning and program development. 

The Building Occupancy Resumption Program (BORP) prioritizes critical facilities and reduces inspection times for reoccupation following a major earthquake. Building owners may apply to the BORP through the Department of Building Inspections to expedite the inspection for reoccupation to within eight daylight hours of an event, a process that can otherwise take days or weeks in the wake of a citywide emergency. This program is the first of its kind in California for private and public buildings and will enable San Francisco to restore services with minimal delay. 

The Lifelines Council of San Francisco is a post-disaster resilience initiative to improve regional collaboration and understand dependencies to enhance planning, restoration, and reconstruction in relation to a major disaster. In 2014 the Council published an Interdependency Study, which identified a series of actions to improve utility reliability and post-disaster function in San Francisco. Since then the Council has considered and discussed priority topics for City earthquake preparedness and held a table-top exercise for an earthquake scenario where all power and communications are cut. 

The Infrastructure Branch Working Group is an interdepartmental group focused on the recovery of the City's publicly owned infrastructure after a major earthquake.

Seismic Priorities

One of the top concerns to emerge from the City’s risk analyses in recent years is the vulnerability of the Seawall, which runs under the Embarcadero along the northern waterfront, roughly from Fisherman’s Wharf to AT&T Park. To promote leading-edge thinking around the financing for this multi-generational project, San Francisco applied to and was selected for participation in the Living Cities City Accelerator, a national technical assistance program that facilitates information-sharing amongst cities with large-scale infrastructure challenges. 

Two other essential disaster preparedness projects are San Francisco’s Emergency Firefighting Water System (EFWS), which is vital for protecting against loss of life and property from fire in the event of a major earthquake, and the PUC’s Sewer System Improvement Program (SSIP) to ensure the reliability and performance of our sewers in the face of an earthquake and other system strain.

Construction of the Seawall
Construction of the Seawall

 

Depiction of Seismic Risk to the Seawall
Depiction of Seismic Risk to the Seawall

The San Francisco Public Utilities Commission assumed responsibility of the EFWS in 2011 and is steadily moving forward with plans to improve and expand its reach. Priority projects focus on improving the reliability of the system, making repairs or improvements to vulnerable components, and adding cisterns to increase capacity. It is expected that citywide reliability of the EFWS will reach 85 percent upon completion of projects funded with ESER 2014.

Since 2013, the SSIP has been upgrading the sewer system’s aging infrastructure so that it can withstand acute stresses and continue to provide safe and sound wastewater and storm runoff management. Aging infrastructure like pump stations and treatment facilities will be upgraded. Green infrastructure will also be built to reduce storm water flows into the sewer system while enhancing neighborhoods. The PUC will also ensure that only treated water will be released into the San Francisco Bay and Pacific Ocean, continuing to protect the health of our community and environment. By increasing overall system capacity to handle surging tides in storm conditions, the SSIP addresses threats posed by climate change. Citywide efforts on that front are discussed in more detail in the following section.

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